Poll Predictions based on differing scenarios

Herein we present some differing predictions, based on different scenarios in our database.

1. Our first prediction is based on the sole use of All Pollsters in the 2014 election cycle.

2. Considering the concerns following Operation Prime Minister, what would happen if we predominantly focussed on the CSDS predictions?

3. Our research has found a number of seats which are considered either 'Safe' or 'Somewhat Safe' based on the previous four election cycles. What would happen if we included these with the pollster predictions?

4. What if we focussed our poll aggregation solely on the historically 'Safe' and 'Somewhat Safe' seat predictions combinded with the CSDS predictions?

The table below presents our results based on the above four scenarios for aggregating the poll predictions.

Data used
NDA
UPA
OTHER
All Pollsters
231
140
172
CSDS only*
213
156
174
Historically  Safe + Pollsters
227
145
171
Historically Safe +CSDS
246
140
157

* Other pollsters were used, in a limited manner, wherever the CSDS had provided no State or UT prediction

Based on these scenarios, the variation in seat number seems the most for the NDA. In all cases they are still shy of the 272 needed for an outright victory. Interestingly, the UPA and OTHER alliance predictions have a tighter range in the prediction variation.

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