FiveFortyThree.in projects that the NDA will win 231 seats in
the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. The UPA is projected to win 140 seats, with
Other parties winning 172.
These forecasts are based on a poll aggregation of opinion
polls presented from January 2013 until March 2014 by leading pollsters such as
CSDS, CVoter, Hansa, IPSOS and AC Nielsen.
Only those pollsters with a reputation gained from having
presented in previous elections were included. Pollsters who have only
presented for the first time in this election cycle or who presented no details
on sample size and methodology were excluded.
Further, our poll aggregation was based on the state level
only. Pollsters who only provided national seat projections were excluded.
Based on our analysis
of previous election forecasts, we knew there was a higher level of accuracy
based on state level forecasts. For any gaps in the state level forecasts, our seat
safety predictions based on the last four election cycles were utilized. In
fact, this was only required for smaller States and union territories which
nearly always tend to vote in a predictable manner.
The table below presents these forecasts at the state and
union territory level.
|
State
|
NDA
|
UPA
|
OTHERS
|
|
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
8
|
13
|
21
|
|
Arunachal Pradesh
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Assam
|
3
|
9
|
2
|
|
Bihar
|
24
|
1
|
15
|
|
Chandigarh
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
7
|
4
|
0
|
|
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Daman and Diu
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Goa
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Gujarat
|
21
|
5
|
0
|
|
Haryana
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
|
Himachal Pradesh
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
Jharkhand
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
|
Karnataka
|
12
|
13
|
3
|
|
Kerala
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
Lakshadweep
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
24
|
5
|
0
|
|
Maharashtra
|
29
|
16
|
3
|
|
Manipur
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
Mizoram
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
National Capital Territory of
Delhi
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
|
Odisha
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
|
Puducherry
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Punjab
|
9
|
4
|
0
|
|
Rajasthan
|
17
|
7
|
1
|
|
Sikkim
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Tamil Nadu
|
8
|
3
|
28
|
|
Tripura
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
38
|
11
|
31
|
|
Uttarakhand
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
|
West Bengal
|
1
|
7
|
34
|
Based on these forecasts, it is clear that a hung parliament
is predicted and that the NDA will need to reach out to regional parties
presently grouped in the OTHERS alliance if these forecasts are correct.
More details will be provided on our methodologies in forthcoming blog posts.
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