Lok Sabha Seat Safety Predictions

As part of our analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, we’ve prepared a comprehensive analysis of election results in the Lok Sabha from 1998 through to 2009. These previous elections are of particular interest as they saw the government change hands between the NDA and UPA alliances. Through this analysis, predictions have been provided on seat safety for each constituency with respect to the 2014 elections.

The Lok Sabha, the lower house of Indias' Parliament, is made up of 543 constituencies. Each one has a single representative MP. An additional two constituencies are nominated by the President of India from the Ango-Indian community, if it is felt that community is not adequately represented in the house.Constituency level results were databased for the four Lok Sabha elections from 1998 through to 2009. All candidates within each constituency were included. Additionally, the total number of votes, the percentage won for the winning party/alliance as well as the percentage winning margin between the winner and the candidate who came in second was determined.

Some constituencies came into existence or were adjusted in 2009 following the implementation of delimitation of parliamentary constituencies based on the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission of India constituted in 2002. In these cases, predictions were made for the 1998-2004 election winners based on averaging state results or by mapping to previous constituencies which were geographically similar to the new constituency.

A conditional logic model was run with factors for voter choice. Each candidate was included in the election, with weighting for the total number of voters per candidate. The model then produced the odds of winning for each candidate within each constituency.

For each candidate, the percentage of elections won from 1998-2009 as well as the odds of winning were used to determine a category for each constituencies seat safety. The categories used were:
This constituency is considered safe for XXXX
This constituency is considered somewhat safe for XXXX
This constituency is considered marginally safe for XXXX
This constituency is considered a toss-up

Table 1 provides seat safety predictions based on the conditional logic model.
Table 1: Seat Safety Prediction per Alliance

NDA
UPA
OTHER
N/A
OVERALL
Safe
39
16
-
-
55
Somewhat Safe
10
81
1
-
92
Marginally Safe
89
-
2
-
91
Toss-up
-
-
-
305
305
Total
138
97
3
305
543
 
As can be seen, based on elections since 1998, the NDA has marginally more safe seats than the UPA. However, of most interest is that the vast majority of seats (305, 56.2%) are considered a toss-up with respect to the alliance winner.

Our comprehensive 558-page report, which also presents a detailed account for each of the 543 constituencies, delves further into the toss-up states and also highlights 8 bellwether constituencies which have been part of the ruling alliance over the last two decades. We believe our report will be of particular interest to journalists, political analysts and citizens. We believe this is the first time a rigorous statistical analysis of historic results has been presented for each of the 543 constituencies in India’s Lok Sabha. 
To purchase the report, please email jsingh@fivefortythree.in. Alternatively, you're welcome to pay via paypal as per below.


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